Exchange rates

OK guys so now the £=$1.70 and looks like it could go lower. The dollar is getting stonger again. So what does that mean to the foreign investor? You get more of your own currency (in my case £) for your dollar investment. If you have already invested, good. If not, thats not quite as good as it was, but don't forget that since January prices are also much lower so the deals still stack.

Why don't you keep up to date with the way your currency is moving with regards to the dollar and work out YOUR strategy as opposed to what everyone else is doing. I subscribe to a free daily newsletter (example below). And for the benefit of the US based investors who think this may not involve them - where do you think your buyers are going to come from? Check out the foreign investment in the GO zone. Don't know what the GO zone is? Time to find out- they are your competition. Keep your minds open to all options and find out what is happening in other parts of the world at the same time. We cannot exist in isolation now. It is a world economy that is biting us on the ass and the better we understand it, the richer we become.

Bernanke comments give the markets hope …

Yesterday's fairly restrained market was kick-started into life in the afternoon by comments from the Federal Reserve Chief, seemingly directed at Congress, in which he intimated that the US economy required a new fiscal stimulus to get it back on track. Both the Dollar and the Stock Market rallied with the Euro hitting a new 18-month low this morning. Cable also briefly fell below 1.7100 but early morning jitters have halted the Dollar's early progress. Technically, there is strong potential for a further immediate strengthening of the US currency, especially if doubts persist as to the likelihood of a turn around in the UK and Eurozone economies.

LIBOR interest rates continued to correct – rapidly in the Dollar's case, but in a more sedate manner in Euro and Sterling. The freeing up of the Money Markets is vital to an economic pick up so expect further Central Bank measures to keep the momentum going. Expectations for huge liquidity adds plus continued official rate cuts should keep the momentum going but it is a return to confidence between Money Market operators that will determine whether period lending resumes.

Talking of economic stimulus, the UK, as expected, reported Government borrowing at a record level last month with September's figure surging to £8.1 billion, almost double the number from 12-months ago. Estimates for the total for the year are for an excess of a massive £60 billion, with rises in the deficit for the following 2-years. With the assertion from Brown yesterday that the UK was looking to stave off a continued slide into recession by spending, plus the additional funding required to fund the Financial Market's bail-out plan, these borrowing figures look destined to deteriorate before any improvement for increased tax revenues are seen. That's not to say that this is not the right way forward for the UK economy in the short term. Bringing forward Government construction projects to stimulate and underpin the UK building and civil engineering sectors could certainly prove to be inspirational. The problem is that despite having a fistful of factors that they are able to influence, the UK Government is unable to do anything about the one thing that is fundamental to the economy's recovery. That is increasing consumer demand from its current lows. Confidence is at such a low that even if No. 10 were able to slash interest rates, it is going to be some time before the consumer returns to the High Street in any numbers. It looks as though it is going to be a long winter……

Elsewhere, Iceland becomes the first sovereign state since the UK in 1976 to go cap in hand to the lender of last resorts, the IMF. For those of you old enough to remember the results in the UK following the IMF loan, the restrictions likely to be imposed upon Iceland will be draconian making redemption of the frozen deposits (no pun intended) a distant prospect.

Also, more Central Bank assistance for the Banking Sector with the French injecting funds into their larger institutions with the Saudis also adding liquidity by placing deposits with domestic Banks.

Today we are largely data free although the UK CBI quarterly industrial trends survey plus the Nationwide regional consumer confidence survey should make interesting reading – unlikely to be positive for Sterling however. The major ‘news event' today will be any info on the Lehman CDS settlement figures and especially with regards to the institutions involved. As expressed yesterday, the numbers are still unknown so both stock and money markets will be influenced on any headlines.